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51.
Robson B de LIMA 《干旱区科学》2020,12(6):1046-1055
The volumetric variability of dry tropical forests in Brazil and the scarcity of studies on the subject show the need for the development of techniques that make it possible to obtain adequate and accurate wood volume estimates. In this study, we analyzed a database of thinning trees from a forest management plan in the Contendas de Sincorá National Forest, southwestern Bahia State, Brazil. The data set included a total of 300 trees with a trunk diameter ranging from 5 to 52 cm. Adjustments, validation and statistical selection of four volumetric models were performed. Due to the difference in height values for the same diameter and the low correlation between both variables, we do not suggest models which only use the diameter at breast height (DBH) variable as a predictor because they accommodate the largest estimation errors. In comparing the best single entry model (Hohenald-Krenn) with the Spurr model (best fit model), it is noted that the exclusion of height as a predictor causes the values of 136.44 and 0.93 for Akaike information criterion (AIC) and adjusted determination coefficient (R2 adj), which are poorer than the second best model (Schumacher-Hall). Regarding the minimum sample size, errors in estimation (root mean square error (RMSE) and bias) of the best model decrease as the sample size increases, especially when a larger number of trees with DBH≥15.0 cm are randomly sampled. Stratified sampling by diameter class produces smaller volume prediction errors than random sampling, especially when considering all trees. In summary, the Spurr and Schumacher-Hall models perform better. These models suggest that the total variance explained in the estimates is not less than 95%, producing reliable forecasts of the total volume with shell. Our estimates indicate that the bias around the average is not greater than 7%. Our results support the decision to use regression methods to build models and estimate their parameters, seeking stratification strategies in diameter classes for the sample trees. Volume estimates with valid confidence intervals can be obtained using the Spurr model for the studied dry forest. Stratified sampling of the data set for model adjustment and selection is necessary, since we find significant results with mean error square root values and bias of up to 70% of the total database. 相似文献
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Simulation modelling of potato virus Y spread in relation to initial inoculum and vector activity 下载免费PDF全文
Potato virus Y(PVY) is a non-persistent virus that is transmitted by many aphid species and causes significant damage to potato production. We constructed a spatially-explicit model simulating PVY spread in a potato field and used it to investigate possible effects of transmission efficiency, initial inoculum levels, vector behavior, vector abundance, and timing of peak vector activity on PVY incidence at the end of a simulated growing season. Lower PVY incidence in planted seed resulted in lower virus infection at the end of the season. However, when populations of efficient PVY vectors were high, significant PVY spread occurred even when initial virus inoculum was low. Non-colonizing aphids were more important for PVY spread compared to colonizing aphids, particularly at high densities. An early-season peak in the numbers of noncolonizing aphids resulted in the highest number of infected plants in the end of the season, while mid-and late-season peaks caused relatively little virus spread. Our results highlight the importance of integrating different techniques to prevent the number of PVY-infected plants from exceeding economically acceptable levels instead of trying to control aphids within potato fields. Such management plans should be implemented very early in a growing season. 相似文献
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实施农机深松整地作业技术有利于农业可持续发展。介绍振安区农机深松整地技术发展现状与技术模式,阐述该技术推广应用中采取的措施及存在的问题,提出逐步建立起技术示范应用长效机制,以期为科学高效地推进农机深松整地技术在振安区的推广应用提供参考。 相似文献
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[目的/意义]目前中国畜牧业正处于加快转型的重要时期,了解相关技术的发展态势对于畜牧业的发展具有一定的借鉴意义。[方法/过程]本文以设施畜牧业领域技术研发的3个主要方向:笼舍技术、饲喂饮水技术和环境控制技术的相关专利为研究对象,利用专利计量的方法对其发展趋势、技术分支、申请人、各阶段重点专利等进行了分析。[结果/结论]笼舍、饲喂饮水和环境控制技术发展同步经历了萌芽期、波动发展期、快速发展期3个阶段,当前申请量呈现直线上升的态势;技术研发主体以企业为主,各研发单位之间技术布局差异性明显;近些年重点专利中的国内专利明显增多;笼舍技术方面装置研发均侧重于粪尿清除、垫板等技术;饲喂饮水技术方面饲喂技术的研究多于饮水技术,且均侧重于研发自动化设备;环境控制技术侧重于废弃物处理技术、空气调节技术和房舍清洁刷洗技术。 相似文献
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丁雨莲 《云南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2021,(3):162-166
基于对全国32所农林高校旅游管理专业现状描述,认为农林高校旅游管理专业的现实困境有培养目标趋同从众、农林特色课程少、学科地位弱、边缘化严重、市场火爆专业遇冷并存。提出建议:依托农林优势资源,坚持“有小异”;优化专业方向课程,凸显农林特色;落实导师制,精细化人才培养。研究结论对于农林高校提升旅游管理专业办学质量与特色具有借鉴价值。 相似文献
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